Playing the Short Side on SPX
General guideline for myself regarding these indicators as flags so that I can be more cautious during these build ups:
- Unemployment Rate Rising > 4.6
- National Financial Conditions (US Leverage) > 0.0
- Yield Spread > 2
- Industrial Production Consumer Goods Month Over Month Decline for 3 Consecutive Months
- Real Retail and Services Month Over Month Decline for 3 Consecutive Months
- New Housing Starts Month Over Month Decline for 3 Consecutive Months
- China Confidence Index Last Month Decline < -3%
The current levels of these indicators are as follows:
| Date | SPX | VIX | Unemployment Rate | Yield Spread | National Financial Conditions | Real Retail and Services MoM Change | Industrial Production Consumer Goods MoM Change | New Housing MoM Change | China Confidence Index MoM Change |
| 07-01-2017 | 2429.01001 | 11.22 | 4.3 | 1.23 | -0.5 | 0.37% | -1.99% | -3.53% | 1.15% |
| 08-01-2017 | 2476.350098 | 10.09 | 4.4 | 1.18 | -0.51 | -0.45% | 0.76% | 3.41% | 0.09% |
| 09-01-2017 | 2476.550049 | 10.13 | 4.2 | 1.15 | -0.54 | 1.48% | 2.08% | -3.70% | 3.40% |
| 10-01-2017 | 2529.120117 | 9.45 | 4.1 | 1.27 | -0.64 | 0.44% | 0.49% | 7.43% | 4.47% |
| 11-01-2017 | 2579.360107 | 10.2 | 4.1 | 1.1 | -0.68 | 0.40% | -0.13% | -0.99% | -2.10% |
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